Author Archive
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Caution is warranted now
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 22nd, 2010 at 7:59 am
I was worried that all those looking for 1160+ may get trapped and my worst fear has come to fruition. I have gone bearish thrice since the March' 09 bottom and was forced to retract back in a week or two. Every time it felt different to me but it eventually turned out to be a buying opportunity but this very well can be different.
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Market wants you to take a stand
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 21st, 2010 at 8:00 am In this market the choice is very clear. If one takes a stand one can at worst loose money but if one doesn't take a stand one would loose money as well as sanity. It's better to stick to one's bias rather than jump around with every market antic.
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No change in bias
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 19th, 2010 at 8:00 am I still think that this market will see 1160+ before we see a 5+% correction. But there is also a possibility that the market might trap all those who are thinking the same way. Next two weeks will be dictated by the earnings results. If 1160+ coincides with AAPL earnings or tablet event then it would more than likely be a sell the news.
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Market is on track
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 14th, 2010 at 8:02 am I thought that GOOG news about pulling out of China might derail the rally but it didn't. It seems most of the sell off in GOOG was already over by the time we ordinary mortals came to know of the news. Market is on track to go over 1160. Earnings season kicks into high gear with INTC earnings tomorrow but heavy weights like AAPL and GOOG report next week.
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Market is on a roll
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 11th, 2010 at 8:09 am There is nothing to dislike about this market from the long side. This market is on a roll. The next upside objective is 1167. I think we may see a quick profit taking bout after that but that would provide an excellent opportunity to get long again.
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Market on strong footing
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 6th, 2010 at 7:58 am Market has started the new year on a strong footing. Both Nasdaq and S&P made new highs today. The volume too has returned back after the holidays.
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Curtain falls on a tumultuous year
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | January 4th, 2010 at 7:54 am It's curtains for one of the most tumultuous years in the history of wall street. The year started with a horrific plunge that gave way to the most astounding and most unloved rally in the history of wall street. It was a year when reputations were made and destroyed in the same year.
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So near and yet so far
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 23rd, 2009 at 8:13 am The $SPX 1120 was breached intraday but the market closed below it. I think it’s only a matter of time before market overcomes the 1120 level. But then I have been saying this for quite some time but I could care less. This market is providing good trading opportunities in individual stocks.
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Do not let the market consume you
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 21st, 2009 at 7:02 am Technical analysis is not a science. It’s an art. If it were a science, someone or the other would have come up with an algorithm to corner the market. Nothing works all the time. I also use moving averages, trend lines, fibs, sector rotation and what not to form an opinion but there is no holy grail here.
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Market still churning
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 18th, 2009 at 7:17 am I thought that the fed would not change their language from the Nov meeting but surprisingly they did. The very thought of an end to low rates regime made the market edgy. The dollar too rallied sharply. I was certain that the fed won’t spook the market but they did by hinting that easy monetary policy may be coming to an end.
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Only a matter of time
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 15th, 2009 at 8:06 am Market is holding up pretty well. I am not going to speculate when it will breakout but will stick to my view that breakout is only a matter of time. My strategy is simple, any sell off is another opportunity. If we rally then it’s even better.
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Keeping it simple
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 11th, 2009 at 7:56 am Market is taking time to breakout but it will eventually in my opinion. I didn’t expect it to take this long but market works on a time table of its own. The options expiration cycle every month also plays a critical role in that time table. These days Mr Market is only rewarding those who have the conviction to take positions home overnight. Most of the movement is already over by the time the day session starts.
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Dollar headwinds
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 9th, 2009 at 8:08 am The strength in dollar is providing the latest headwinds for the equity market. There is one or the other thing that’s keeping the market from breaking out. The main reason for the strength in dollar in the past few days has been the improved jobs report last Friday.
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Short term rally likely
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | December 1st, 2009 at 7:06 am A short term rally into the FOMC and jobs report this Friday is likely. I am looking for any rally to stall around 1070. This should relieve the oversold condition as well as confuse that the rally is intact.
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Buy the Dubai nonsense
Thinking Trades, Vinaya Dhabareeya | November 29th, 2009 at 11:04 pm In the last post I had said that holiday shortened weeks are generally bullish. It seemed that the bullishness had run its course while the market was closed over the Thanksgiving holiday. The news out of Dubai had the futures spiraling down over Thanksgiving.
