Author Archive
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Momentum Book Update
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 23rd, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Oyyy, it was a tough week for long only strategies any way you cut it. The market trapped the chasers with three major distribution days and then puked for two straight. I made a calculated decision to lower my beta early in the week but didn’t significantly raise my cash level.
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Grab Your Cojones and Buy Materials
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 21st, 2010 at 7:57 am Let’s begin tonight with a little chart review. A few weeks back I posted a weekly look at the $XLB which was coming into long term resistance at the $35 level. I said at the time that I though we were due for a rejection from that level, and that it would take a few weeks, if not a few months for the market to regroup and break through. Here’s where we stand on the chart tonight.
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The Market Hates Not Knowing the Rules
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 20th, 2010 at 10:51 am So Scott Brown (R) has won the Massachusetts senate seat vacated by the late Ted Kennedy. I have not made my views of this particular election known for a reason, mostly because I’d like to be able to talk about its effect on the market from a neutral position.
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Position Sizing is Everything
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 19th, 2010 at 7:50 am Trading, like most things in life, is part science and part art form. You must be willing to accept that there are certain strategies which work, and those which do not. You must also learn the art of trading, develop the intuition required to read the market, and the experience on which to anchor your confidence.
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Weekend Reading – Higher We Go
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 18th, 2010 at 12:01 pm …meanwhile, I’m not surprised our boys at NASA are snorting coke in the hanger bay, hell, if my employer just kept me around for the illusion of looking useful I’d want something more fun to do as well.
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Momentum Book Update
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 16th, 2010 at 11:24 am An interesting week it was indeed. We came in on Monday to see the market ripping, it was frothy, and everyone knew it. Problem was that few were willing to sell into the strength, myself included, for fear of missing out on a melt up move.
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Turn Those Machines Back On!
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 14th, 2010 at 7:55 am Get those brokers back in here! I do trade commodities, but I’m sure as hell not an expert when it comes to the fundamental aspects of certain commodities markets. Take for instance, the grains.
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Frying In A Hot Vat of Tech
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 12th, 2010 at 12:35 pm It was very obvious yesterday morning that we were overbought, the sentiment was too bullish, and some pain needed to be felt. I said as much on Sunday night, I told you all that I didn’t like the fact that I was skipping over lower beta names out of fear of a melt up. EVERY SINGLE TIME I hear or think melt up, we pull back. Why, because we are churning upwards, and will continue to do so. The 50 day moving average has to be bought on the downside, and euphoria must be sold on the upside. I’ll admit, I didn’t cut my position sizes like I should have yesterday morning, and for that I am now giving back some hard earned alpha as I fry in a vat of hot high beta tech.
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Chart.ly Chart of the Day: Hecla Mining HL
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 11th, 2010 at 8:00 am Today on the Chart.ly Chart of the Day we take a look at Hecla Mining $HL with @gtotoy. The materials sector is red hot right now, and this high beta miner looks primed to move higher. We see a nice tight bull flag on the chart with a strong MACD bullish cross
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Momentum Book Update
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 9th, 2010 at 2:01 pm The momentum book under performed a little bit this week as I am heavily loaded in tech and not exposed enough to the materials sector. Large cap tech is taking a rest here after its amazing run. Are we topping out or consolidating for the next push?
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Jobs, USDX, ES, and Rates
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 8th, 2010 at 10:18 am I hope you all get it by now, that the negative correlation between equity markets and the US Dollar is broken. In fact, we’ve flipped all the way to a .5 positive 30 day running correlation. A few months ago if the $DX_Fdropped like it did this morning, equity markets would have been flying. Here’s what we saw this morning.
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Gold and Materials Update
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 6th, 2010 at 11:41 am Materials are running, there’s nothing secret about that. Let’s take a quick look at where we are.
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Get Ready to Hop On the Fertilizer Train
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | January 5th, 2010 at 10:23 am Mosaic $MOS kicks off this round of earnings reports in the agricultural sector today after the bell. It’s always interesting when we find a confluence of technicals and fundamentals, isn’t that they way it’s supposed to work. Mosaic is running up into some major resistance. We have filled the gap from the dump of September 08′ but haven’t been able to pus above the low of that candle as of yet. If $MOS can break through 63 on strong volume it will most likely set off a run in the agricultural sector. I would not be afraid to buy a nice gap up tomorrow morning as an entry to a position trade using last Wednesday’s low as a stop.
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Closing the Year, With Much Gratitude
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | December 31st, 2009 at 1:00 pm It’s been one amazing year, in the markets, and for me personally. I won’t go into the specifics of the market, ya’ll know what took place, if you don’t, I hope that time you spent in some Taliban safe house in captivity wasn’t too awful. I hope you all learned a thing or two this year, there’s no substitute for having your money on the line in the market. If you didn’t learn something about yourself, I highly recommend you do some meditation on that over the weekend.
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Fear Your Cash, Hate Your Bank
Surfview Capital, Leigh Drogen | December 30th, 2009 at 7:57 am had a light bulb moment tonight. I was walking down the street, freezing my butt off, thinking about a conversation I’d had with someone this afternoon. The moment had been building up for some time, working its way to the surface, revealing itself it little bits and pieces, but tonight it hit me like a rock.
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