Author Archive
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Just Another M&A Monday
Dasan, Dasan | September 21st, 2009 at 9:51 am
M&A Monday: DELL to buy PER. $3.9B, $30/share, 68% premium to close on 9/18. Trying to follow HPQ’s lead into services. Tech companies have lots of cash and M&A is likely. Paying about 30x p/e and 9x est EBITDA. (This deal is another that looks obvious is retrospect- DELL is desperate to ape HPQ’s strategy, and PER was one of the only companies like this left)
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PALM For People Who Still Care About Fundamentals
Dasan, Dasan | September 19th, 2009 at 11:32 am Here's a clip from some of my work on PALM. Notice how many handsets that PALM must sell in F2010 for the stock to be worth what it's trading at today.
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Tech Stocks Still Cheap?
Dasan, Dasan | September 18th, 2009 at 8:13 am ISI’s Francois Trahan says Technology is the sector of choice when economic prospects are rising. Despite rally, technology stock valuations remain below historical levels. Technology has the least balance sheet risk- least levered of all S&P sectors. He cites semi book-to-bill as leading indicator, semis most cyclical. (I agree and have noted strong book-to-bill for several weeks now)
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The Case For Stocks
Dasan, Dasan | September 17th, 2009 at 8:19 am Other than inheriting a fortune, there is no better way to create wealth than to own quality stocks. There, I’ve said it.
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Oracle of Omaha is Buying Stocks
Dasan, Dasan | September 16th, 2009 at 9:02 am Warren Buffett says he is buying stocks, doesn’t expect a “double dip.”
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Fall Follies
Dasan, Dasan | September 15th, 2009 at 8:26 am “Trading is like golfing – some people can do it for years and never get any better at it.” My proprietary contrarian indicator flashed another “long” signal yesterday.
Overall stock market commentary: breadth was very strong the last few days despite weak volume. This is bullish, but lack of volume, not so much.
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M&A Monday Again?
Dasan, Dasan | September 14th, 2009 at 11:04 am M&A Monday in full gear again? Deutsche Telecom rumored to be interested in bidding for S. (Good for PALM? If T-Mobile and S merge in US, wider distribution for PALM Pre?) S up 20% to 4.35 premarket from 3.77 close.
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Back To School: Harvard & Yale Get Schooled
Dasan, Dasan | September 11th, 2009 at 8:00 am Great article in WSJ today about how Harvard and Yale got taken to school. For a few years they were following the “stocks are too conservative, lets load up on illiquid private equity and timber” model. Both schools, once thought to be the best and brightest, lost 30% of their endowment values last year. Cautionary tale for individuals trying to mimic their methods.
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Why I Hate Shorting Stocks
Dasan, Dasan | September 10th, 2009 at 8:09 am One of the main reasons I felt strongly that the stock market could really rip in 2009 is the fact that everyone was so excited about shorting stocks earlier this year.
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“It’s Only Rock ‘n Roll…”
Dasan, Dasan | September 9th, 2009 at 8:22 am AAPL: iPod event today at 1:00 EST. Munster raises estimates of iPhone units for SepQ to 7.0M, up from 5.2M last Q due to checks indicating 3Gs supply improving.
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“Buy The Ticket, Take The Ride”
Dasan, Dasan | September 8th, 2009 at 8:25 am Stocks still cheap? S&P P/E is 19x trailing 12 months earnings, fairly high. However, 13.5x 2010E EPS, the lowest since 1989. So if you believe the economy can recover in 2010, stocks are still cheap – “trough earnings?”
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Late Friday Musings
Dasan, Dasan | September 5th, 2009 at 2:00 pm NOK: N900 is first handset that looks close to iPhone in quality. Nice touch screen, great graphics, and slide out keyboard. Would be nice to see an iPhone with a slide-out keyboard – but that’s like a 2 button mouse – just not likely to happen. Also nice camera – with cropping and tagging of photos right in the handset.
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Vacant Hedgistan
Dasan, Dasan | September 4th, 2009 at 9:45 am LVS: Bernstein’s Brashear raises price targets on WYNN and LVS based on Macau gaming revenue trends. Raises 2010 EBITDA estimates for LVS by 8% to $721M, and WYNN to $526M. Also trends in Singapore positive, raises EBITDA estimate for LVS Marina 2010 EBITDA from $409M to $543M. (Shows the value of tracking these numbers – I analyzed these numbers early this week.)
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The SEC Admits They Helped Madoff Attract Suckers!
Dasan, Dasan | September 3rd, 2009 at 7:54 am Moreover, we found that Madoff proactively informed potential investors that the SEC had examined his operations. When potential investors expressed hesitation about investing with Madoff, he cited the prior SEC examinations to establish credibility and allay suspicions or investor doubts that may have arisen while due diligence was being conducted.
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American “Mexican Standoff”
Dasan, Dasan | September 2nd, 2009 at 8:47 am BAC, WFC want to pay off TARP before bonus season to avoid government limits on big paychecks to slow down the talent exodus. Yet they will be financially weakened if they do so. No one wants taxpayer money fueling these huge bonuses, but who wants zombie banks instead?
