Author Archive

• The market is no place for logic
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | January 13th, 2010 at 8:48 am

  

  Another late day rally salvaged what could have been, and looked to be a brutal day. I was looking for a bounce in the first 1/2 hour of the day, and we did have it, but it was very weak looking. Further, we then dropped again, and with that I could tell it was a good day to keep my palms in my pocket. I really wanted to short this thing, and I was very close when we took out the 1130 on the ES. but I never found a good entry, so I stayed put, and thankfully so, the way it turns out.

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• Alcoa can’t wait for tomorrow….
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | January 12th, 2010 at 10:55 am

  

  Earnings have kicked off with a resounding “thud”. AA disappointed the mkt. and now a small degree of fear has crept in. Yet the VIX was down today, because AA came out after the close. The rest of the week we will see some NASDAQ moving earnings that will be topped off with INTC on Thursday and JPM on Friday. I expect both of those to be mkt. movers.

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• weekly video
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | January 11th, 2010 at 7:38 am

  

  As much as I expected to have a clear direction by now, we obviously do not. V has been average but I expected more and it has led to mixed singles throughout indices. The NASDAQ seems to have the most strength right now, but the major players don’t seem to be the ones fueling the move, in fact, GOOG and AAPL are some of the weaker ones in the sector, with a strong day Friday.

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• Turn up the volume
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | January 6th, 2010 at 7:48 am

  

  I really expected us to see a trend forming, and instead we get more of the same, a whole lot of nothing. At least we had some intra-day movement. I have noticed that v is slowly creeping up, but it is really moving on certain sectors.

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• one day does not a trend make, unless it is jan 1.
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | January 5th, 2010 at 7:50 am

  

  Not one day does a trend make, unless it is the first day of January. Should we be surprised by such strong move today? Not necessarily, remember ony 63%  of the time the Jan 1 move was in the same direction as the last trading day of December. Also remember that, without exception in the last 10 years, whatever Jan 1 did a trend was based off of that day, the shortest one being 3 days. What I didn’t check was to see what kind of resistance those mkts. had.

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• As old as Favre vs. Childress
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 29th, 2009 at 7:55 am

  

  That means this is getting old. Now I didn’t expect a huge move today, no news, low v, holiday shortened week yada yada yada. More of the same. It makes writing this blog difficult, I will not lie. I mean what do I tell you? The exact same stuff as before?

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• the 50% fib has been tested
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 23rd, 2009 at 7:52 am

  

  If you remember a while back, say the first week of December, I was wishing that the SPX would just reach up and touch 1120 and be done with it? If you recall, 1120 is the 50% fib ( closing ) from the October 07 highs to the March 09 lows. Well today’s high on the SPX 1120.27. Previously it was 1119, which was close enough, but not as good as 1120. So basically we are re-testing our highs, but we are re-testing them on a pittance of v. Other than a huge spike on 3f, v has decreased for 5 days in a row, which is obviously to be expected. In fact, I imagine it will go down for tow more days, unless we have some panic selling.

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• I got an ill feeling….. literally
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 22nd, 2009 at 11:57 am

  

  Well all, it tis the busy season, and I am not feeling well, so I will have a super quick post tonight. Remember I said low v will equal up move? Well today we had Thanksgiving type of v, and we had a pretty strong move up . Again, I think it is likely that we will have low v all week, with shortened trading week, Christmas and general exhaustion going into the new year. I also think this may cause some huge volatility swings, especially considering the economic news remaining this week. They may be some great over reaction trades to be made intra-day, for those of you nimble on your feet. The way I feel right now, I don’t know if I will be up in the morning to take advantage of them or not.

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• Weekly Video
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 21st, 2009 at 7:32 am

  

  3 1/2 days of trading this week and a whole lotta mkt. moving data. As I say in the video, I think v will be king. I would imagine the v would be low, but nearing the end of the year and all the data, I could be surprised. If we see good v, I think we see the mkt. end down this week, and low v will lead to an up week.

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• Finally the blockage has cleared, for now.
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 18th, 2009 at 8:09 am

  

  So far this week we have had 34 companies report earnings, and all but three of those have done bte. That should be bullish, but if you dig just a hair further, only 3 companies gave upside guidance. The rest gave mixed guidance, or were unsure. FDX beat, but their guidance was unclear, and as goes FDX usually goes retail and more, so that is quite often a mkt. mover, and I neglected to catch they had earnings today, my bad! However, nothing has been moving this mkt. so I would’ve likely ignored it anyway.

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• Flatliners
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 17th, 2009 at 7:41 am

  

  It has flatlined. I thought the news today would give us something, but alas, here we sit flat as my feet. I really don’t even want to put charts on here, because there is not much to talk about. But I will throw a couple in here because that is what I do.

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• Grinder
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 15th, 2009 at 10:43 am

  

  It seems lately we have a great open and then nothing, just sideways movement all day. It makes for brutal trading sometimes. I am out of ETFs right now and just playing individual stocks until we have some direction. I will still look at them and show them, but right now, if I trade them it will be for intra-day trades. The eur/usd is forming a new bear flag, and the last one was a real doozy, see keep your eye on that. Let’s get right into the grinder.

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• I shall simply say good luck ( gotta read to the end)
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 11th, 2009 at 11:35 am

  

  As text-book as yesterday’s supports held, ditto today for resistance. I watched the open rubbing my hands waiting for a spot to short this rally that I was sure was going to fail mightily. I chose the SPY as my vehicle of choice for an intra day trade, and finally when it set up on the 5 min. chart I was in, right around 9:45.

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• trends hold….. for now.
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 10th, 2009 at 7:56 am

  

  Another quick Wednesday night post, as it is late and I just got home. Things went about as expected today, a little stronger move up than I anticipated, but not out of line. Trend lines held, but it looks like the eur/usd is weakening again. Let’s look:

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• Hitting some trend lines
  akoptiontrader, Glenn Godfrey | December 9th, 2009 at 9:23 am

  

  Well so much for another blah day. We had a real move today, with okay v, but not enough to breakdown, not enough to take out support. We have crude & wholesale inventories tomorrow and that is it. So unless another politician wants to speak, healthcare gets passed, we send more troops to atwarastahn, Dubai strikes gold and oil on the same day, or some other news item pops up, I will be expecting a bounce in the morning. Simply a relief bounce due to the abundance of selling today.

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