Author Archive
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Tuesday links: not-so distressed debt
Abnormal Returns, | January 5th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Has bullish equity sentiment reached an extreme? (Big Picture also Behind the Headlines)
The market is going to do what it does regardless of the calendar. (Daily Options Report, Marketwatch,MarketSci Blog, Afraid to Trade)
Dave Nadig, “All indexes—not just commodity indexes—are in a way an active bet.” (IndexUniverse)
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Monday links: a mixed bag
Abnormal Returns, | January 4th, 2010 at 1:33 pm “December was a mixed bag of performance for the major asset classes, mainly because fixed-income was weak.” (Capital Spectator)
Mark Hulbert, “Basing a trading strategy on the market’s performance over the first five days of January can be dangerous to your wealth.” (Marketwatch also MarketBeat)
Can the market rally without the financials? (Bespoke)
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Sunday links: a clean slate
Abnormal Returns, | January 3rd, 2010 at 5:03 pm The worst of 2008 were first in 2009. (Bespoke)
Can’t wait until Tuesday. (Sentiment’s Edge)
There is very little that indicates a momentum effect for the overall stock market. (NYTimes)
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Thursday links: bear market in bears
Abnormal Returns, | December 31st, 2009 at 1:01 pm Individual investor bears are a dying breed. (Sentiment’s Edge)
“It’s time for dividends to come back into fashion.” (Breakingviews)
2010 could see a reversal of the risk trade. (Barron’s)
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Wednesday links: as steep as it gets
Abnormal Returns, | December 30th, 2009 at 1:01 pm The yield curve is about as steep as it gets. What it means for stocks. (Bespoke also Crossing Wall Street)
Have equities already priced in a sharp rise in corporate earnings? (WSJ)
“The possibility that there’s a link between the calendar and stockmarket performance, mediated by some combination of behavioural bias and weather related conditions can’t be ruled out. “ (The Psy-Fi Blog)
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Tuesday links: historic lows
Abnormal Returns, | December 29th, 2009 at 10:14 am Joel Kotkin, “If the U.S. were a stock, it would be trading at historic lows.” Don’t give up on the U.S. just yet. (New Geography via The Browser)
“Both sports betting markets and financial markets are efficient ENOUGH that you have to do your own work – and LOTS of it – if you expect to generate alpha.” (Kid Dynamite)
A long-term look at Dow yields vs. Treasury yields. (Bespoke)
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Monday links: adjusting for inflation
Abnormal Returns, | December 28th, 2009 at 1:40 pm Adjusting for inflation makes the past decade look even worse for stocks. (WSJ)
2009 was the year of the junk bond. (VIX and More)
Is it time for the dispersion trade? (Daily Options Report)
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Sunday links: forecast frenzy
Abnormal Returns, | December 27th, 2009 at 11:17 am Well said. “The end-of-year forecast frenzy is simply a bit of temporally induced fun which shouldn’t be taken seriously.” (The Psy-Fi Blog)
Roger Nusbaum, “The reason to invest in foreign anything is for diversification.” (Random Roger)
For what it is worth the S&P 500 has retraced 50% of its losses. (Big Picture, ibid)
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Thursday links: a true bull market
Abnormal Returns, | December 24th, 2009 at 11:49 am Happy holidays to all of loyal Abnormal Returns readers. Be safe and enjoy some time off. The markets will be there when you get back.
On contrarianism. (Aleph Blog)
The 2010 Bespoke Roundtable is worth a look. (Bespoke)
Some different approaches to trading ETFs. (VIX and More)
Here’s hoping for better ETF education in the new year. (IndexUniverse)
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Wednesday links: momentum moves
Abnormal Returns, | December 23rd, 2009 at 12:56 pm The VIX edges below 20. (VIX and More)
The US Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is in positive territory for the first time in over two years. (Carpe Diem)
Seasonality is positive. (Quantifiable Edges)
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Ten thoughts on the past decade in equities
Abnormal Returns, | December 23rd, 2009 at 7:40 am In this case we are talking about domestic equities. And talk about what a bad decade it was. As 2009 winds down it is clear that the buy-and-hold for the long term crowd was a big loser this decade as the stock market essentially went nowhere, albeit with some notable volatility. After taking into account inflation domestic equities were a net loser. In short, the theoretical lessons on the riskiness of equities became a reality this past decade. -
Tuesday links: no hold bonds
Abnormal Returns, | December 22nd, 2009 at 1:13 pm Jeff Miller, “I have never seen a great investment where the first information came through advertising.” (A Dash of Insight)
Andrew Smithers, “We see no reason for investors to hold bonds.” (FT Alphaville)
A simple sector ETF momentum approach seems to work. (CXO Advisory Group)
Why ETFs are attractive to traders. (VIX and More)
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Monday links: lost decade for stocks
Abnormal Returns, | December 21st, 2009 at 12:49 pm By all accounts this was the worst decade for stocks in well over a century. (WSJ also Calculated Risk, Falkenblog, Big Picture)
Is the equity cult finally dead and buried? (Institutional Investor)
The decades served investors who diversified away from domestic equities. (The Capital Spectator)
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Sunday links: snowmaggedon edition
Abnormal Returns, | December 20th, 2009 at 11:10 am The January effect has started early this year. (StockCharts Blog)
200 day moving averages are poised to accelerate higher. (VIX and More)
Bullish equity sentiment at week-end. (Trader’s Narrative, The Technical Take)
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Friday links: dollar drama
Abnormal Returns, | December 18th, 2009 at 1:13 pm A turn in the dollar has sparked some bullishness, so much so that the U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has run out of shares. (MarketBeat also Bespoke, Big Picture, DJ Market Talk)
The best performing stocks since the last market peak. (Bespoke)
Mebane Faber, “2009 should be seen as a big free gift from Mr. Market.” (World Beta earlier Abnormal Returns)
